The Course of the World
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the war erupted during the creation of Vision 2024. The war is changing the course of the world and has influenced and reinforced the drivers of change for 2024 and beyond. During and after the outbreak of the war, OvN created a Miro board where we have been gathering information since the first day of the war, the schedule you see below is a filtered analysis plus it shows the connection to the Drivers of Change in Vision 2024. You can download the PDF here
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We collaborate with Ukrainian trend forecaster Mariya Tarasyuk who is from Kyiv and fled to Prague and discussed with her the impact of the war on the future drivers of change which you can read beneath.
Safety and security
The Russian invasion in Ukraine disrupted the life of the people in Ukraine and their usual life ceased to exist. The calm and measured life they used to live and loved so much in Ukraine has ceased to be. The problems that worried people in Ukraine before became petty and the only thing that they think about now is security. It is unbearably painful to look at the atrocities that Russia is doing to the Ukrainian people. Murders, violence, tortures, marauding and looting, these concepts should have remained in the middle ages, and now this is happening in Mariya’s close surroundings.
Europe
Also for those outside Ukraine, peace in Europe is something that can no longer be taken for granted, the war is a crisis in European security. The threat of a possible third world war, the vulnerability of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants and the many Ukrainian victims and refugees impact people all over Europe. Although European states differ, the war unites European citizens. Europeans trust NATO to defend Europe and when Russia invaded Ukraine, Sweden’s and Finland’s security position changed fundamentally and both countries most probably will bid for membership of the alliance, potentially as early as June. With Finland and Sweden, the Western alliance will grow to 32 members. Far-right parties may win in popularity.
Freedom
According to Mariya “Ukraine is at war not only with the aggressor country, but it is also at war with evil in general and with those outdated principles that despotic and authoritarian states are driven by. The only thing we want is to live in our country, appreciate our culture, freely choose the government that meets our values and raise our children in safety and love.”
Detail of the Miro board
History
Events do not happen overnight and also the war did not start on February 24th, 2022. In 2008 there was the invasion of Georgia and the “Gerasimov Doctrine” of 2013 was hailed as the Russian blueprint for future war. Then there was the barbaric seizure of Crimea and the territories of Donbass in 2014. Boris Nemtsov was killed In 2015. The Netherlands MH17 airplane crashed in the Donetsk area of Ukraine after being hit by a Russian-made Buk missile over eastern Ukraine. In 2020, Alexei Navalny was poisoned. These were events everyone witnessed. If you do not immediately resist evil, then it gains strength and feels omnipotent.
The truth
News and journalism play an important role more than ever in shaping the ideas of society. Pluralism of opinions is important for a democratic state, but information hygiene and truthful coverage of the events are also important. Therefore, it is more important than ever to be able to analyse, compare and rely on facts in making any decisions.
Dependence
The fact that we have only one planet and all countries depend on each other in one way or another was shown by the war. The whole world has become a big family for thousands of Ukrainians who were forced to leave their country.
Countries impose sanctions against the aggressor country, feeling their own economic problems, but realizing that there is a lot at stake and there should be no place for wars and terrorism in the modern world. Governments of every country are now looking for alternative energy sources, agricultural innovation, the renewal of natural resources, the development of technologies to provide its inhabitants with the basic needs of warmth in their houses, protection and accessibility to food and water. This war will not set humanity back, it will highlight the real-world problems and speed up decision making on issues that have been discussed for years.
“This may not be a world war but the world is at war.”
Hope
Mariya says that all Ukrainians are praying for peace now and we wish to return home to our families as soon as possible and start restoring our country, which will become even stronger and more beautiful.
Ukraine's influence on trend forecasting and the creation of Vision 2024
For the first driver, New Age of Humanism the war enforced the importance of being safe and having a home. Uncertainty, the threat of war ( possible a third world war) and being a witness of war on European ground is frightening. For the people in Ukraine, it is devastating. The war influences the importance of being connected to others. Dealing with the news and images of the world raises the attention to mental health. People are seeking spirituality to make sense of it all. Self-direction, is important for well-being, focusing on what is important in life. Existential questions are being raised about life, people, what is good and bad, work, money and how we spend our lives.
For The Stack it is recognising that if you leave an issue unaddressed it won’t go away and probably will get worse. Also how people view the world and how this determines ideas and worldviews became obvious. The importance of trust in institutions, the government and journalism are important to address the gap in society. Companies play a social and financial role in creating a healthy society. After war societies, in general, become more social. Understanding the culture of others, the language, the customs, and knowing about the history is so important, as well as local knowledge and a local view to understand situations.
For Climate Care, the dependence on the global supply chains already proved to be vulnerable during the pandemic and this continues to be a disruptive issue because of the war. This is a perfect storm; to produce less CO2, dependence on gas and oil from Russia drives the need for alternative sources, and the war can speed up the energy transition and accelerate renewable energy sources. The transition to a circular economy will drive decentralisation, local clean production and sourcing. Nuclear energy will grow but that also proved to be a vulnerable point in this war. The effect on food supplies and food chains for instance vegetable oil and grain will also drive the search for alternatives. Prices will rise, for raw materials, energy, shipping and manufacturing. This changes consumer behaviour and the way we think about what we buy and how we engage with what we own. Rising prices will affect the most vulnerable in society and widen already existing gaps. So far, governments are taking measures that benefit everyone, but those who need it, need the support.
Everyone jumps on the metaverse as a new opportunity for innovation and commerce. The war influences the fourth driver Digital Worlds to look again at what we are building with fast-developing technology and questions what is progress. So much money is invested in the metaverse but how important is the metaverse in the face of war? The search for the word metaverse on Google has risen more than 7000% in 2021, the metaverse is not something to deny. Escapism, experimentation, fun and exploration are important. Yet the real world needs attention too, digitisation can solve issues in the real world that help society move forward. Technology connects people worldwide and advancements in computing power and AI can solve complicated issues.