Covid-19

OvN’s consumer insight book Vision 2022 was created at the end of 2019. At the time, our research showed that all trends were linked and overlapped. That challenges and problems were deep-rooted and contributed to a feeling of increasing pressure. The global economy was thriving while the divide between rich and poor was growing. In this time, while the fires in Australia burnt and many young people protested around the world, we defined the four drivers of change for 2022. Then the COVID-19 pandemic spread over the world and everything stopped. Now that the world is slowly restarting, we examine the research and the effects of the pandemic of the identified drivers of change for 2022.

The Speed of Change, Laws of Nature, Future World History and Encoded Reality are long term developments that are still valid. Influenced by the current global pandemic, some of the identified drivers may speed up, and others may slow down. The short term has changed and this will influence developments and needs on the longer term. There are historical disruptions when the future changes direction and we are living through them. As written in the introduction of Vision 2022: “We often assume that the future will be a continuation of the present, but as history shows, the future can take a different path”. 

The outbreak has caused an array of changes in behaviour and we are focused on understanding the ones that will come next, how long they will last, and whether any will stay with us after the outbreak is behind us. Above all, the pandemic causes much suffering and uncertainty. The economic damage is incalculable and we will feel the consequences for a long time. Disruption takes on a different shape. The humanitarian and safety-related aspects of this outbreak are top of mind globally. 

Next to all the pain and disruption, the crisis can also be an opportunity for change. Through creativity, inventiveness and innovation, new shapes take form. 

The global pandemic will not be over in a few weeks and will affect how we think, learn, work, travel, do sports, relax for a longer time, within this landscape we are making predictions and thinking of ideas what the future will look like. 

Embrace the future, learn form the past, we can do this!

Stay safe!

Oltmans van Niekerk

Remote

From remote teamwork and learning, to sales and customer service, to cloud infrastructure and security, everything accelerated in two months. There are changes in what has become vulnerable sectors and what have become priorities. Some have enormous profits where others suffer. Past years, the concerns were about technology and Artificial Intelligence taking over labour. Now, the service industry like restaurants and travel have become the vulnerable. Technology companies are blooming, and are hiring new people. 

For the coming year(s) a different set of priorities will be important for companies such as expanding online channels, focus on health, hygiene and protection, local supply chains, strengthening the ties with customers, enhancing communication and building strong communities. 

Rethinking

The biggest shift, next to the faster pace of digitalisation, is that we need compassion and care. When we look back, we will understand that the 21st century truly began in 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic took hold. 

We entered the twenty first century blinded by things we have been warned about for decades but never taken seriously enough. This could be a century where we go from crisis to crisis, until we finally shake off the illusion that our world will go back to the comfortable way it was. The pandemic may be the beginning of the process of rebuilding our society.

It has been a tough uncertain period for everyone, it will be important to be understanding and support people. The longer this period will last, the more important being supportive will be. People are hurt, have lost their jobs or companies. This means 

supporting communities and connecting to people and culture, paying attention, without selling. Communicating in a way that matters and that is relevant. When the present is stressful it is important to be kind, clear and empathetic. 

Resilience

Paying all our attention to the overwhelming present is not the right strategy. Immediate change is necessary for safety reasons; but we also must find the resilience to look ahead and plan for the next world. We can take the time to think and decide what far-reaching social changes we are willing to accept and what changes we want to fight for. Think of ideas of how you want to help shape the future with what you know and experience now.

We do have significant influence on what happens next, the decisions we can and do make today, will shape the future. Thinking deeply about who needs you and your products and how you can truly help your customers is the basis for a far more robust strategy.

A new future path

The future will not be like the past. The choices our societies make now, can have an enormous impact on the course of the next few decades. Our failure to build back creatively and productively from the global financial crisis is necessary context for the challenge to do so now. We can build back better, leaving behind the things that did not work. 

It is hard for human beings to imagine the future as being radically different from the present. If we rise to meet the crises of the 21st century, our future can be better than our past. 

China had the first COVID-19 outbreak in December 2019, and when China took the first steps to reopen, much of the world was facing the worst of the virus. China is also first to gradually reopen and shows that life has changed. Everyday personal habits such as wearing masks, gloves, using hand sanitisers, temperature stickers and alcohol wipes have been integrated into everyday life. Returning to the workplace goes step by step with taking into account people’s health and the risk to others. 

Due to the size, the Chinese economy plays an essential role in revitalising the global economy as a whole. The worldwide pandemic and economic crisis accelerate long-term market changes. The Chinese economic recovery is fragile, with many difficulties, uncertainties and trust issues. The recovery will be uneven if the virus can be controlled, the industrial sector is recovering faster than the service economy. 

The world has become smaller, there is a shift from being a global society to a more local attitude. China is changing its trade and travel routes, manufacturers are turning more local and inward. China is the supplier of products to the world. Global outbreaks show us how interconnected we are, and how much we rely on each other for all of our essential services. 

COVID-19 has accelerated the AI health care revolution in China and showed us a glimpse of a possible future. Robots delivered food, medicine, and goods to patients in hospitals or quarantined families. Diagnosis illnesses are the focus of most AI initiatives in China’s health care sector. China’s AI progress and role in global healthcare supplies are important to observe in a perspective of global balance. 

Consumer behaviour will be changing:

-Health over privacy

To stay safe, many Chinese people have embraced government-endorsed, and newly built-in health code functions in China’s smartphone apps such as WeChat. The health code function tracks a person’s travel to see whether he or she has been to areas with high infections. People check-in showing their smartphone health codes when entering a building. Health matters more than privacy. Voice control will become more important, now that masks make face ID more difficult, and touchless retail that minimizes contact points.

-Trust & control

Issues of trust and confidence become more critical, as well as a good reputation and a responsible attitude. A company that you plan business with has to be reliable and trustworthy. Chinese apps like TikTok are popular worldwide, yet there are concerns about privacy and control out of China. 

-Ways of working that remain

Looking at China to learn about life after lockdown shows that working habits have changed, people go back to the office and work in shifts. China might pivot towards a more flexible workstyle as the technology and infrastructure to support this are available. People make less use from public transport, instead, they increasingly walk, bike and drive. Although people can go to restaurants, they are taking it slow. 

Climate change has long been a threat. The pandemic has shown us the impact of a global crisis. At least with this crisis, we have our homes and the Internet. The pandemic has made us more aware that all life on Earth is part of the same ecosystem, humans included. We have left minimal habitat for wildlife and we find ourselves at the beginning of a biodiversity crisis. Human, animal and ecosystem health are closely intertwined. The spread of viruses is enhanced by declining ecosystems and wild animals and people living closer together. We need to be aware of this and act accordingly.

The slowing down of travel, manufacturing and day-to-day operations has had some positive impact on the planet already. Could global action, as seen during this pandemic, provide a future blueprint for the kind of collective behaviour that could be beneficial to people, planet and the economy? 

Will the Covid-19 pandemic slow down the actions taken to reduce the effects of climate change? Lack of funding will have an impact on large scale sustainability developments. Sustainability at its heart is about managing waste, reducing impact and building smarter systems capable of regeneration. The current situation can serve as a new form of creativity that inspires ideas and innovation in respect of our world. We have seen what the effects of a crisis can be and that transformation can be quick and impactful. 

Could global action, as seen during this pandemic, provide a future blueprint for the kind of collective behaviour that could be beneficial to people, planet and the economy?

Consumer behaviour will be changing:

-Reduced lifestyles

People have had time to clean up, possessions are reduced, and this feels liberating. Every new purchase is now rationally questioned; the focus is on essentials. Businesses will also increasingly focus on the essentials; ranges will be reduced, the focus is on simplicity, support and delight. People enjoyed the more quiet, slower pace of life and are not looking forward to going back to their old routines. A simple, rural life, with fewer restrictions from the virus, will be a new dream. Vegan lifestyles will continue to expand.

-Connection with nature

We depend on nature for our wellbeing and deepen the relationship with nature by spending more time outside. Greener, more liveable cities where cars will be abandoned are both contributing to the environment and health. People experienced a healthier environment with cleaner air which makes the attention for sustainability and climate change even stronger. Meaningful consumption and new consumer expectations will rise even more substantial. People will be more hesitant about the development of biotechnology and for instance, growing bacteria.

-Smaller-scale

Our immediate environment and homes are the new safe place; the scale has become smaller and more friendly. We have grown more close to our immediate family and friends and appreciate the charm of our close surroundings. In global trade, we see scale reduction with a focus on the local, a move away from bulk products that are transported across the globe. 

3/Protests & Action

Update Future World History

“Whoever controls the media, the images, controls the culture”

Allen Ginsberg

During the pandemic, George Floyd’s death in the United States has sparked widespread calls for social justice in the world. Public demonstrations against injustice took place as COVID-19 continues to spread around the world, and hitting minority communities the hardest. We all have a responsibility to challenge racism; it is a problem for all people. The momentum should be used to create a better world and rewrite history.

Of the world’s total population of 6.5 billion, nearly 90%, have little or no access to most of the products and services many of us take for granted. Nearly half do not have regular access to food, clean water, or shelter (source: Cooper Hewitt archive). Today’s challenges demand a crucial change in social behaviour; we are all connected. The multiple crises we are in require solidarity, cooperation and compassion for people who are having a harder time. Empathy and social connection are antidotes to fear.

AI is unthinkable for the future, the use of AI in, for instance, face recognition systems is increasingly important in law enforcement, border control, and other applications throughout society. AI has exhibited racial bias, gender bias, age discrimination bias, and other prejudices. For shaping a fairer future, there should not be any group underrepresented in technology. Hiring for diversity is essential for valuable points of view and life experiences. Marginalised voices should be heard, for instance, by increasing  the LHBTQ representation in games. 

The divide between rich and poor is growing, opposite perspectives live next to eachother. The tension is growing and can not be denied. System change is needed to restructure society and create equal opportunities.

Consumer behaviour will be changing:

-Support (young) people

Young people have experienced the financial crash, the changing climate, student debt, they are having worse prospects than their parents, and now they experience a pandemic. How do they see their future? It is a complex world where everything is tied together, the world seems too complex to handle, but young people are determined to change the world. 

-Lead change

The right to freedom is a fundamental right, how to ensure that everyone has equal chances and opportunities? Brands have the power and platform to lead change. Anyone, at any level of an organisation, can take small steps to exercise greater compassion and initiate action for justice for those who are marginalised. Think critically about how you can use your power to effect change. Words of understanding and encouragement are of value, but actions have a lasting structural impact. People don’t realise how much what we read and watch shapes the way we see the world. 

-Recession and price

The economic fall out most likely is going to be both deep and long. The focus on lower prices and lower margins will increase, the discount side of retail will become stronger. The focus should not just be on lower prices but focus on value for money products. Make basic things accessible for everyone, fund marginalised people and create opportunities for making the world a fairer place. 

The COVID-19 pandemic turned out to be a push for the digital economy. The Internet has helped us through the crisis, imagine what the crisis would be like without it. There was a significant rise in e-commerce during the COVID-19 turmoil and also the adaption of digital by older people has sped up. Online positions need rethinking, and being digital means acting almost like a start-up, troubleshooting and quick fixes while moving forward.

The new reality is that many people work from home and will remain to do so. Exploring the world from your home has a new dimension. Contact remains essential, during the closure of shops, retailers have set up virtual real-life assistance to shop in real live via Zoom. Service is offered to discuss what you are looking for, with a personal assistant that curates a selection for you and gives advise. People enjoy the conversation. 

Data is power, data ownership or retail makes it possible to target people personally. Work on how e-commerce should feel and on how to create the right visuals and atmosphere in the online environment. Some things work well online; others need more exploration. People like being in contact but also found that Zoom video calls make it easier than ever to lose focus. The shape of offices, desks and our homes will change and become more flexible and multi-functional. 

Consumer behaviour will be changing:

-Digital connections

Physical experiences are digitised. The pandemic made it not possible to get the real thing which has bee opening up possibilities for augmented reality (AR). The need for AR used to be minimal; now it becomes a good option, AR is here to stay. For the past several years, the fashion industry has been moving toward augmented reality with virtual closets, virtual fittings, and virtual fashion shows. Interaction with the customer has changed, and the physical point of sale has changed. There is a rise of direct to consumer brands. Capture fans online via social media and sell something become businesses.

-A taste of the virtual

Every business that was not online now is moving online; for instance, fashion can be explored through real-time interactive 3D garments. There was the first virtual catwalk show organised by Carine Rothchild, London Fashion Weeks will be running as a digital-only platform. What can 3D Design and visualisation replace and what not? Virtual shopping experiences will continue to be used after lockdowns, such as virtual wine tastings and personal-shopping appointments for fashion and beauty via video calls.

-The human touch

Even in a digitally sophisticated environment, being human is essential. The challenge is to find a good balance between the two. Digital and new technologies that are the tools of digitalised real-life interactions can add to an experience and enhance connectivity. Emotions in gaming play an important role in the experience.

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Freedom of travel

China as Factory of the world

Globalization

1/The Speed of Change

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Health over privacy

Trust & control

Ways of working that remain

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Climate change as problem of the Future

Funding 

Focus on Non-essentials

2/Laws of Nature

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Us-them

individualism

Racial bias

3/Future World History

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Support (young) people

Lead change

Recession and price

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Office hours

Real life contact

Off-line

4/Encoded Reality

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Digital connections

A taste of the virtual

The human touch

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