1/ The Global Race for the Future
A New World System
“The global economy is undergoing a fundamental reinvention, and we are at the beginning of a transformation that will change the world in profound and largely positive ways.“
It is a slow-moving transformation that can be seen if you understand the innovations and how they will change our future lives. To truly understand this change, it is important to step back and think about the big picture and the long-term and to take the risk that meets the moment.
A new system must be sustainable, based on fairness, and support long-term economic growth. In doing so, it must not negatively impact cultural, ecological and social well-being. We must learn from the past to shape the future. The rise of oil has had a profound impact on shaping the current economic system of the modern world. Using new and cleaner energy technologies can radically increase human and planetary prosperity. Besides focusing on replacing current energy consumption with cleaner alternative sources, it is necessary to think outside the box; the challenges we face require transformative solutions.
In the next twenty-five years, the most likely scenario is that the world will experience the impact of climate change and the transition of most energy sources from carbon to clean energy. New industries will be scaled up, and it is possible to build a more environmentally friendly and social society. Capitalism is also likely to be reformed around new economic priorities that counter current imbalances and inequalities. To make this a new reality, rapid progress on many fronts is needed.
New ideas are not limited to a single continent; they spread around the world in minutes rather than centuries. When navigating this period of change which is an intense and confusing time, it is important to keep in mind that sometimes the best solution is to cut away the old and try radically new ideas.
Banner image, The Art of Listening: Under Water by Jana Winderen
1/Balance of Power
Global Perspective
Almost everything in the world runs on computer chips, which is causing a shift in power in the modern world. With global concerns over climate change, there is a collective rethink of the global economy; chips may soon replace oil in terms of its global impact and distribution of wealth. No other facet of the economy is so dependent on so few companies. Chips from Taiwan provide 37 per cent of the world's new computing power each year. OPEC's 40 per cent share of the world's oil production is not impressive by comparison.
China makes larger investments in importing chips and chip-making machines than in buying oil. It is determined to increase its domestic chip production to produce 70 per cent of the semiconductors it uses by 2025. Rising geopolitical tension and rivalry over economic power and chips between the US and China, the return of protectionism and the blocking of trade restricts the flow of technology, data and talent. As the competition grows between systems, the Western model itself is transforming, and China’s rise changes the balance of ideas as much as the balance of power.
Models show that for every degree of temperature increase, one billion people will be displaced, which is a global problem. For the entire world population, you will either be displaced or will receive displaced persons. The vital process of adaptation to climate change is a priority in every area, from the built infrastructure to food and energy systems and the establishment of many new cities in host countries. If planning for the human migration of millions of people across continents starts now, the impact may be limited.
The world's population will continue to grow in the coming decades, and most of this increase will take place in the tropical regions most affected by climate catastrophes, causing people to flee north. The Global North faces the opposite problem, a growing elderly population supported by a substandard workforce. International cooperation is needed for these challenges beyond the so-called global north and south divide.
Why this matters
Computer chips are everywhere, the modern world runs on them, and a new economy is unfolding. Globally we are dependent, and collaboration is needed to meet future challenges.
TSMC chip wafer/ Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company
The global semiconductor market forecast to reach $1tn in value by 2030, chipmakers must decide now on how they will meet that expected demand given that it takes years to build plants. Global expansion of plants in Europe and Japan is planned. Read more here
Nomad Century/ Gaia Vince
The displacement of billions of people across the globe because of climate change, is already changing our food, our cities and our politics. Read more here
How trade affects the carbon footprint/ Global Carbon Project
Statistics on carbon emissions are usually recorded according to the producer principle and not the consumer principle. Countries in the Global North have outsourced their production operations. When you take that into account, the picture shifts. Read more here
Rare earth mine/ Xinjiang, China
Over the coming decades, demand for rare earths is forecasted to increase by two to eight times over current supply. Read more here
2/Effects of the Energy Transition
The Dawn of a New Industrial Age
By 2030, 65 per cent of the world's total electricity supply can be supplied by electricity from renewable sources. The age of energy abundance could be closer than we think, something hard to imagine in the middle of an energy crisis. While renewable energy is only abundant some of the time, innovations in batteries will create the missing link in the transition. Storing electricity and creating opportunities for people to use it more flexibly, matching consumption to availability. With an abundance of energy, we can travel more, and building materials become cheaper, just like our goods. In addition, we can experience better health through more nutritious food and cleaner water supplies.
In the past year, companies and people have become more aware of energy consumption, leading to more flexible and smart electricity consumption. Most new renewable generating capacity will have to come from variable sources: primarily solar PV, onshore wind, and offshore wind, which lead to more flexible operations. Electricity markets will need to be reconfigured, and consumers are adopting the mindset of energy traders and becoming green electricity traders.
The transformation has effects that are important to realise. It creates new dependencies for critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt and rare earth metals. Lithium comes from a small number of producers; Australia, Chile and China control more than three-quarters of global production. We are part of the system, including the hidden effects in countries like Congo. The world would benefit from more diversified supply chains. International cooperation and strategic partnerships will be crucial to ensure the security of supply. International cooperation is necessary; the energy transition will become more costly and slower if countries do not cooperate.
Plastic is an urgent problem that we need to solve. We can have abundant energy, but if there are plastic particles in our air, food and even our body, it threatens our health. Plastic even harms sperm quality. It's not just a matter of waste, but of the survival of the human species.
Why this matters
Cheap, abundant energy will shape the future.
The Ministry for the Future/ Kim Stanley Robinson
Novel about how climate change will affect us all and how we might unite to overcome the greatest challenge of our time. See more here
Power Project/ Dan Edelstyn and Hilary Powell
Grassroots project building a solar power station across the rooftops of North East London. Read more here
Hydrogen Hubs/ Storelectric
Renewable energy should always be available when required, and hydrogen hubs can be the missing link. Demand for hydrogen is expected to grow by a factor of 1,000 or more by 2030. Read more here
3/ Growth and Profit
Societal and Personal Growth
The idea of growth is something that is culturally, politically and institutionally ingrained. Is it possible to break with the logic of growth? How do we get fair growth? How to grow and not promote consumerism and materialism? There is a need to rethink and reformulate social notions of progress in broader terms than consumption. Innovate lifestyles, communities and societies to consume less and still appeal to everyone.
Consumerism sacrifices the future for immediate, short-term gratification, both on an individual and societal level. The search for alternatives to consumerism focuses on learning, cultural issues, developing skills and creating bonds between people, nature and society. Find another way to fulfil ourselves away from consumerism. The only products that are needed should meet real needs and innovative social practices that have little or no impact on the environment and focus on social and personal growth.
The paradigm of growth-oriented economics has ended. Calculating the social and environmental costs of our behaviour shows that consumerism and our shopping habits are destructive. A principle of basic economics is to make supply smaller than demand so that value increases. But the cult of consumerism ushered in an era of poorly made products with devastating consequences for nature. Individual desire has been democratized. Change the idea of “the new” and the “more is better” culture we have today into a culture of limitations, new ownership models and products for life.
We cannot stop shopping because it has become a hobby and leisure activity for many people. Consumer psychology shows that people seek novelty, the rare and convenient. Consumers feel divided; on the one hand, they want something new, but they constantly feel guilty when they think about the consequences of buying something. Can something be really beautiful if it is not sustainable?
Why this matters
Reforming capitalism to prioritize social good, natural resources, and the environment is needed to address the negative impacts of the extractive economy.
Fast Fashion Helpline/ threadUp x Priah Ferguson
Call #1855THREDUP is a fast fashion Gen Z helpline. ThredUp’s data indicated one in three Gen Z shoppers feel like they’re addicted to fast fashion, yet, 51 per cent of college students said they want to quit buying fast fashion, with the top reason being they want to shop more sustainably and ethically. See more here
How to build a company/ Greg Isenberg
Circulate/ Ahluwalia
Ahluwalia has partnered with Microsoft to create Circulate, an innovative textile and clothing recycling programme, bringing new life to loved but unwanted clothing. Read more here
The Serpent of Capitalism/ Zoe Walker and Neil Bromwich
Artwork that invites audiences to think about capitalism in our society and what the alternatives might be. See more here
4/Regulation and legislation
Ownership of Problems
Governments have a role in accelerating change with regulations and legislation to correct market failures, such as pollution and waste, and to promote social welfare. Countries such as France and California have extended producer responsibility also after a product has been sold and encourage people with incentives to reduce their impact by changing behaviour, such as travelling by bicycle instead of by car.
It is possible for businesses to combine fighting climate change and promoting social justice with generating a profit. Businesses have the responsibility to look beyond short-term profit and consider every impact their business decisions can make on the wider world. Setting seemingly impossible goals and focusing on long-term results to bring about real change.
For the good of business, communities, and the planet involves radical cutting out those things that do not build up. Small new initiatives that focus on no impact can be seeds of change within a company. The contribution to society, the morale and accountability of a company becomes increasingly important.
People's power makes a huge difference in the world today. More people become activists and make their voices heard by disrupting everyday life through strikes and actions. People are not sitting back and feeling helpless, they are working to find solutions by themselves to support climate action, and their voices will be louder.
People in affluent countries can contribute to averting climate change by slowing down demand and buying better quality products, and making them last. Eating a plant-based diet with no waste, travelling by train, switching to green energy, insulating our home and switching investment companies, banks and pension providers to match our values. Explore the future with an open mind, letting go of systems that no longer work as part of the transformation.
Why this matters
Governments, companies and people have a role in the transformation, positive change is made together.
RE2020 regulation/ French government
Regulation that aims to foster low-carbon and sustainable construction materials and improve the thermal comfort of housing, particularly during summer heat waves. The law is part of the country’s drive to become carbon neutral by 2050. Read more here
2030 Calculator/ Doconomy
Tool to quantify the carbon footprint of goods. The goal is to come to a hangtag system for consumers to compare the impact. Read more here
Circular mattresses/ Auping
About 35 million mattresses are discarded in Europe and 20 million in the United States every year. 90% of a mattress can be reused, so Auping set up a take back system to recycle their mattresses. See more here
Further reading
People’s Power/ Ashley Dawson
We can no longer think of energy as a commodity. Instead we must see it as part of the global commons, a vital element in the great stock of air, water, plants, and cultural forms like language and art that are the inheritance of humanity as a whole.
For Profit/ William Magnuson
For most of history, corporations were not amoral entities but public institutions that supported societies. What happens in the next chapter of the global economy depends on whether we can return to a public-minded spirit or whether we choose high profit at all costs.
Paradigm Time/ Will Gibson
Paradigm Time, Two Tales of the Future, explore two different views of the years ahead for us. In the first tale, Resource Wars, ecological and economic disasters have brought great changes to people's lives. In tale two, Resolution Days, the world has faced the challenges of education, economy, and environment.
Chip War/ Chris Miller
Microchips are the new oil, the scarce resource on which the modern world depends. China spends more on chips than any other product and is pouring billions into a chip-building initiative to catch up to the US.