The Disruptive Twenties

Welcome to the Vision 2023 update on disruption and risks. The 2020s will mark a decade of turmoil and be a period of change, transformation and disruption. The goal of this report is to view what lies ahead and to be open to a future decade that will challenge our attitudes and belief systems. The disruptions and risks suggest a rapidly changing environment. Disruptive change is inevitable and cannot be taken lightly, yet disruptive change also presents an opportunity to take the world to another level.

Context for Understanding

The first step is to understand the context; where we stand, where we are heading to, what we are dealing with and what the trend lines mark. Then we can analyse what these changes mean for us individually and collectively. In this report, the most important disruptions and risks are analysed in the area of technology, economy, social and climate change to provide a context for understanding the most critical uncertainties over the next 10 years. 

The Bridging Phase

The years from 2021 to 2030 can be seen as ‘bridging years’. Because of Covid-19, all the attention shifted to surviving the present. There was an innate lack of curiosity about the future until recently. Viewing the world through the lens of a longer time horizon is needed to face the challenges and future opportunities of the next decade. We have to make sure the decisions we take today still make sense in a potentially different future. 

“Earlier eras of massive change ranged in length from 50 to 75 years, in the 2020’s we will experience just as much creative destruction, volatility and disruption in just 10 years.”

David Houle

Different Futures

Ultimately, our ability to better manage disruption is a question of attitude. Only with an open mind will we be able to imagine different futures and this will enable us to be agile, long-sighted and inclusive. Neuropsychology shows that our brains start to be open to change if we have an image of where we want to go and if that image is already experienced enough in “real life”. Creating this future image is important to shape a positive future for all.

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1/Technological Transformation

The fourth industrial revolution will be largely driven by the convergence of digital, biological and physical innovations.

2/Economic Shifts

Population growth and technological progress are at the heart of the coming shift in economic power.

3/Climate Change

Climate change is the biggest threat to humanity.

4/Social & Cultural Change

Uncertainty about the future is a significant concern of today’s young generation.

Drivers

 1/Technological Transformation

Digital Disruption

Rapid technological and scientific advances, especially artificial intelligence and machine learning lay the foundation for the next industrial revolution. The fourth industrial revolution will be largely driven by the convergence of digital, biological and physical innovations. 

Technology in 2030

The specific deep technologies that will have the most profound impact on all businesses include extended reality, the internet of things, blockchain, robotics & AI. These technologies will disrupt human identity, shopping, working and living, banking, consumer goods, mobility, health, oil and gas. 

The World is Data

We are still at the beginning of the data period. The total amount of global data is expected to increase tenfold by 2025. Most of this data will be created and managed by businesses, this comes with data privacy, ethics and protection risks.

2/Economic Shifts

Global Demographics Will Change

Population growth and technological progress are at the heart of the coming shift in economic power. The population of Asia is expected to grow to more than 5 billion people by 2050. Dropping fertility rates will lead to the phenomenon of an ageing society in other parts of the world.

City Living

It is predicted that 70% of the Earth’s population will be scattered into about 40 megacities in 2030. Megacities have populations of over 10 million people, and almost all are and will be in Asia and Africa. China expects to have 200 cities with a population of over one million people by 2025. Many of these newer urban area’s have an entirely different look, feel, and outlook than their older European or North American counterparts. When cities grow fast, the risk is that the necessary infrastructure cannot expand fast enough to keep up with residents’ needs. These megacities’ fast-growing population can outpace support structures in the city where the threat of food shortages, traffic congestion, and insufficient education facilities can become a reality. 

Supply Chain

Many businesses rely on connected, multi-layered and interconnected networks of data, finance and people. Changes in the environment and the global economy increase the frequency and magnitude of shocks. These shocks can disrupt the global value chain, as we have seen during Covid-19.

3/Climate change

Global Warming

Global warming is likely to reach or exceed 1.5°C in the early 2030s or even earlier (source: IPCC). If the temperature continues to increase at the current rate, the two-degree threshold could be reached as early as 2036. This creates significant and irreversible damage and increasing strain on global resources. In order to have a two-thirds chance of staying under the critical threshold of 1.5°C warmings, we must achieve near-zero emissions in less than eight years. (source: The Climate Clock).

Extreme Weather

An estimated 50% of the world’s population will be exposed to flooding, storms and tsunamis by 2030. Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees over pre-industrial averages and investing at scale in the resilience of coastal communities, and especially in Africa is a priority. Climate change is the biggest threat to humanity.

The planet’s Resources

The world's population is expanding rapidly and is becoming more prosperous; this leads to high demand for energy, water and food, putting pressure on the planet's traditional, finite resources. We have reached the limits of constant growth in living standards for more people on an overcrowded planet. An increasing scarcity of resources will put pressure on both people and nations, which can lead to wars, mass displacements and other disasters.

4/Social & Cultural Change 

Demographic shifts

The global population is showing unprecedented shifts in race and age, with populations declining in at least 45 countries. An ageing population implicates the decline in the working-age population that leads to a supply shortage of qualified workers. In addition, the demand for healthcare rises with age, large-scale changes in government policy will be necessary because of pressure on health services. We have fewer children, especially in the richer and more highly educated sections of society. The younger generations will be increasingly burdened with caring for the elderly, which can further reduce productivity.

Poverty

The closely linked global poverty and population growth problems pose one of the most dangerous risks for 2030. By 2030, the West will contain no more than 15 per cent of the world’s population. The global population will grow fastest in the poorest countries with large numbers of people that live in the slums. Solutions for improving the quality of life are providing safe, uncontaminated drinking water, primary education in all parts of the world, especially to young women and children, and making technology accessible to all to participate in the digital economy.